I wouldn't pay $30 Billion, never mind $44 Billion

What you'll have heard is that Microsoft, the lumbering dinosaur business of the 1980s, have finally stopped pussy-footing around and launched a hostile takeover bid for Yahoo!, AOL's contemporary from the infamous DotCom bubble.

AOL bought Time Warner in the heady days of the DotCom bubble using its inflated stock as currency. Ted Turner and his buddies fell for the false allure of the internet hook, line and sinker. Michael Eisner then Chairman and CEO of Disney, balked at the idea of AOL buying Disney or Warner even back then without the benefit of hindsight.

He might have been a flawed leader later in his tenure, and maybe he did lead Disney down another internet blind alley in the form of Go.com, but he can be commended for seeing that AOL was, in terms of core value, worthless.

The bottom fell out of the DotCom bubble shortly thereafter. AOL Time Warner's stocks plunged, AOL itself became increasingly a non-issue. Yahoo!, a major player in the key search market, also suffered.

And then, came the internet's pimp. Google went from strength to strength whilst Yahoo! floundered. A bewildered and confused Microsoft continued futile attempts to leverage its Windows dominance to sell users on their own internet services. Users turned over and yawned.

And so it has been ever since. Yahoo! continues to flounder, now valued at roughly $22 a share. Microsoft, increasingly aware that it is propped up by Office and Windows and even these products are facing problems, is using money to expand rather than innovation. The company is too big, too widely spread and ultimately too IBM to do anything else.

Microsoft lacks a true creative visionary, never mind leader. It's cash-rich and has many global brands it's failing to leverage. Somewhat like the beleaguered Apple of the mid-90s. And the newly empowered CEO is looking outside to plug the holes in the business.

When Apple bought NeXT from Steve Jobs and co., they did not just move NeXT's resources into Apple. What was Apple was removed. In a startling reverse take over, funded by Apple, the Old Apple gave way to what has been called The New Apple, the second Jobsian Apple.

But here's the thing, there already was a new Apple. It was called NeXT. All Apple had done was make the new Apple, Apple. What was in it for NeXT? After all, they already had the new Apple. Well it was the word "Apple". Steve Jobs made it clear, Apple's main asset is its brand.

So Ballmer is looking to acquire Yahoo!, Microsoft has lumbered down a blind alley and needs guidance out and Yahoo! needs a back door into more users to compete with Google.

So what's going to happen? I'll give you a hint: say good bye to Yahoo! and Microsoft. Oh sure, the names will stay. But Yahoo-Microsoft will see which management team has the best leadership vision and follow it. For both Microsoft's products and those of both Yahoo! and Microsoft.

Meanwhile, we hear that Amazon has bought Audible. Apple would have been well-advised to stop this. Audible would have been a good by for them too, allowing them to sell Audiobooks on iTunes in a more direct manner. It's not a huge loss for Apple, but Amazon is rapidly spreading outwards into new realms. Someone needs to worry.

Hey, maybe they can use their inflated stock to form Amazon-Apple Yahoo!-Microsoft Time Warner (AOL Time Warner is seeking to divest itself of the worthless AOL, hence their name would be dropped).

Jens Out

CES Las Vegas 2008 Bill Gates Keynote Predictions

Next week, Bill Gates is set to give his final CES keynote. Although Bill's keynotes are generally considered to be nowhere near as entertaining as Steve's (Jobs) - notably due to how awkward a person Bill is - he usually has some pretty significant things to discuss at these things.

Furthermore, rumours have been flying around the Internets relating to games that the keynote will carry at least one major announcement relating to Xbox. Bill wants to go out with a bang and apparently that bang is going to come courtesy of the good half of Microsoft's Entertainment and Devices division.

If it's still called that. I haven't checked recently.

Anyway, the smart money seems to be on the Xbox 360 Ultimate. The Ultimate will offer a built-in HD-DVD drive, WiFi, a 320GB Hard Drive and Microsoft's much touted Mediaroom software for IPTV functionality. It'll offer users a dominating home media solution for a huge cost, but one which will probably compete well with Sony's comparably tepid 80GB PS3 (Which does have one slight advantage: Blu-Ray pwns HD-DVD, but more on that once my 2 still-due packages arrive).

Now that's quite impressive. Bill could retire on that. But I said he wanted to go out with a bang.

So hold on tight, here's my purely speculative idea for the real big news.

Xbox Live Silver is dead. Long live Gold.

And by that I mean that I expect Bill to announce some way of playing online free. It might be that Gold gets cheaper and moves to dedicated servers with Silver using the old user-hosted system.

Or Gold will stay the same price and offer a subsidy against IPTV services, or even bundle IPTV into the cost.

At the very least, I think Bill will say Xbox 360 Ultimate owners get free Gold. That would allow them to charge a slightly higher premium over the PS3/80GB and drive even existing 360 customers to the top model. Which would itself drive sales of Microsoft's inferior - and lousy - HD-DVD standard, rather than Sony's Blu-Ray.

And now for some less exciting predictions. Bill likes Windows, but we already decided this will be a fairly gaming-oriented keynote. So I suspect Games for Windows Live is about to go to Version 2. Obviously, it would fall under the same pricing changes listed above. But I also think Windows itself will now access live.

Windows Live will probably get an update with a Games for Windows Live Manager/Guide. This would function as a combined version of the Xbox 360 Dashboard and Xbox Guide and would likely function by putting your GamerCard in the Sidebar (As well as an obligatory Notification Area icon), the clicking of which would bring up the Guide window.

Also, I expect the Xbox 360, Windows Gallery and Zune Marketplaces are to be merged. I doubt that means you'll be able to do much more than cue downloads, but you might get to buy music on your 360.

But hey, maybe you'll finally be able to buy that Games for Windows Live version of Uno they promised.

By you, I mean me.

I want my Uno.

Jens Out